vrijdag 12 april 2013

Munger

C. Munger,  een persoon met geweldig inzicht, een voorbeeld ervan vind je hier:
1 van mijn favoriete passages:
"Now let's talk about efficient market theory, a wonderful economic doctrine that had a long vogue in spite of the experience of Berkshire Hathaway. In fact o­ne of the economists who won — he shared a Nobel Prize — and as he looked at Berkshire Hathaway year after year, which people would throw in his face as saying maybe the market isn't quite as efficient as you think, he said, "Well, it's a two-sigma event." And then he said we were a three-sigma event. And then he said we were a four-sigma event. And he finally got up to six sigmas — better to add a sigma than change a theory, just because the evidence comes in differently. [Laughter] And, of course, when this share of a Nobel Prize went into money management himself, he sank like a stone.
If you think about the doctrines I've talked about, namely, o­ne, the power of reinforcement — after all you do something and the market goes up and you get paid and rewarded and applauded and what have you, meaning a lot of reinforcement, if you make a bet o­n a market and the market goes with you. Also, there's social proof. I mean the prices o­n the market are the ultimate form of social proof, reflecting what other people think, and so the combination is very powerful. Why would you expect general market levels to always be totally efficient, say even in 1973-74 at the pit, or in 1972 or whatever it was when the Nifty 50 were in their heyday? If these psychological notions are correct, you would expect some waves of irrationality, which carry general levels, so they're inconsistent with reason."
En laat me niet vergeten, zonder twijfel de beste voordracht over investeren die ik ooit tegengekomen ben:

M'n favoriete quote:

"The right way to make decisions
in practical life is based on your
opportunity cost. When you get
married, you have to choose the best
[spouse] you can find that will have
you. The rest of life is the same damn
way."