dinsdag 29 juli 2014

citroentje


In de 1995 letter to shareholders bespreekt goeroe een erg populaire sector, retailing: 

" Retailing is a tough business. During my investment career, I have watched a large number of retailers enjoy terrific growth 
and superb returns on equity for a period, and then suddenly   nosedive, often all the way into bankruptcy.  This shooting-star   phenomenon is far more common in retailing than it is in   manufacturing or service businesses.  In part, this is because a   retailer must stay smart, day after day.  Your competitor is   always copying and then topping whatever you do.  Shoppers are   meanwhile beckoned in every conceivable way to try a stream of   new merchants.  In retailing, to coast is to fail.         In contrast to this have-to-be-smart-every-day business,   there is what I call the have-to-be-smart-once business.  For   example, if you were smart enough to buy a network TV station   very early in the game, you could put in a shiftless and backward   nephew to run things, and the business would still do well for   decades.  You'd do far better, of course, if you put in Tom   Murphy, but you could stay comfortably in the black without him.   For a retailer, hiring that nephew would be an express ticket to   bankruptcy.         The two retailing businesses we purchased this year are   blessed with terrific managers who love to compete and have done   so successfully for decades.  Like the CEOs of our other   operating units, they will operate autonomously:  We want them to   feel that the businesses they run are theirs.  This means no   second-guessing by Charlie and me.  We avoid the attitude of the   alumnus whose message to the football coach is "I'm 100% with you   - win or tie."  Our basic goal as an owner is to behave with our   managers as we like our owners to behave with us.         As we add more operations, I'm sometimes asked how many   people I can handle reporting to me.  My answer to that is   simple:  If I have one person reporting to me and he is a lemon,   that's one too many, and if I have managers like those we now   have, the number can be almost unlimited."

Duidelijk genoeg,  al overweeg ik wel eens om enkele retailers te groeperen- Walter Schloss gewijs (2 van elke soort) - en zo een eigen retail-fonds uit te bouwen, en de individuele posities in de loop der jaren oppikken na een slecht rapport of zo, niet tegelijkertijd.

Bijvoorbeeld:   
Coach (nu sukkelend) &  Michael Kors (hype, shooting for the stars)
Tesco (nog meer sukkelend)  &  ???  (Ahold misschien?)  
Bijou Brigitte (wankel)  & Tiffany's (on a roll)
De wegwerp-kledij van Primark  (via LON:ABF)  en het omgekeerde:   LVMH of Richemont

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Doch momenteel moet er niks gekocht worden,  en dus geen nood aan volledig nieuwe posities.  Huiswerk maken, dat wel.

disclosure: none

 

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